Some Final Oscar Predix

Oscar night is coming up very shortly so I thought it would be a good time to dish out what I think is gonna go down on Sunday:

Best Picture:
At this stage it seems that The King's Speech has got it all wrapped up...which is weird. Just three weeks ago-ish The Social Network was the one it seemed no one could defeat, but since the SAG and other awards, King has generated a late game surgence which surprised a lot of people. Especially the one's who don't believe that it is actually 2010's best picture. I haven't seen it yet, so I'm passing judgement by saying that this will probably become one of those "what were they thinking?" wins, when The Social Network still remains fresh and popular. I don't know, I could be completely wrong.

Who Will Win: The King's Speech
Who Could Win: The Social Network
Who Should Win: I have only seen half of the nominees, but even out of that The Fighter deserves this prize for excelling to the genuine heights and exploring them with humor, humanity, energy and passion.

Best Director:
The only two nominees that have chance at the prize are obviously Tom Hooper and David Fincher, and it seems that while Hooper's film will take the best picture, Fincher's work will be rewarded here (in recent ways like '98, '00, '02, '05 when the best pic went for lighter and director went to heavier) because every thinks this is great work and that he deserves it for a great body of work as well.

Who Will Win: David Fincher
Who Could Win: Tom Hopper
Who Should Win: What David O. Russell does with the simple Fighter story and transcends it with energy, dynamism, clarity, is something possessed of a kind of fresh, breathing life without stifling it, that some of the other directorial works in the category fail to accomplish (i.e. Aronofksy and the Coen's in particular).

Best Actor: 
If there is a single solid lock, place your bets on Colin Firth for almost everyone knows he is winning and even more so after all of those awards that were handed to him. It seems that not a single other nominee has been on anyone's tongue as a possible dark horse throughout the season so check his name on her prediction list now.

Who Will Win: Colin Firth
Who Could Win: Virtually no one
Who Should Win: Eisenberg for now -- I have only seen half of S.N. and really appreciated his work thus far, and have seen True Grit and hated Bridges' performance. And now I know that he isn't on the "official" ballot, but Mark Wahlberg easily walks off with my vote.

Best Actress:
Early on the race was a head-to-head competition with Portman and Bening; each trying to get their first award, but one who's still ripe and one people feel need this consolation now. I remember (as I'm sure everyone does) earlier around September/November how strong Bening's chances were, but then the enthusiam for her shallow work in a shallow film seem to have been noticed by some, she slowly lost almost all of that early hype which gives Portman the edge to this current day. Add the SAG win over Annette and Portman is a near lock, though people still say Bening has a fighting chance. She did, but I just don't think so anymore. And I'm glad for it.

Who Will Win: Natalie Portman
Who Could Win: Very slight chance that Annette wriggles in, but she is the second runner up.
Who Should Win: As of now, Portman (who's work improved the second time) or Williams as two of the three I have seen. So I'll be happy to see Natalie winning.

Best Supporting Actress:
The favorite category is at last unpredictable again! Nice to see after the super lock of Mo'Nique last year, and here we have four ladies with a possibility of a win, with only one left out in the cold -- Jacki Weaver is the one who's not moving anywhere near the finish line and hasn't really seemed to budge an inch since the season begun. That leaves the other four ladies scurrying past each other with different possibilities opening up each day it seems. Melissa Leo's notorious (i.e. incredibly stupid) "campaign" has back fired a great deal and her front-runner status has become incredibly loose and it people seem to like her work less and less now that they hype's (kind of) wearing down. Plus, she's plastic, so yeah. Some speculate that Bonham Carter has a good shot because her film has been incredibly popular with the Oscar peeps and that everybody loves her. It could happen, but at the same time I just don't see it. Amy Adams' spectacular work seems to be becoming more appreciated as much as Leo's is becoming less so, and I'm happy for it. Her work has been underrated by awards/critics groups, though many see that it is superior work to her costars and more real. I could see this happening out of nowhere, but her lack of buzz will hurt her. This leaves the final nominee threat against Leo: Hailee Steinfeld. The 14 year old who came out to give one of best performances of the year, but in a leading role. This bit might advance her chances because leading gals in supporting always seems to go well with voters. Oscar loved her movie and critics and audiences loved her work, and her age would make her the third youngest winner of all time. And who wouldn't want to see an upset on Sunday to liven things up a bit? Steinfeld peaked at just the right time, and Leo made those silly ads at the wrong time, so this is one upset that really could happen, and probably will.

Who Will Win: Between Leo and Steinfeld -- but giving Steinfeld the edge. I can't really see Leo winning this or maybe I just don't want to see it...
Who Could Win: Leo or Adams for sure, and I hope Adams.
Who Should Win: Amy Adams, followed by Steinfeld (check out my review of The Fighter to see why)

Best Supporting Actor:
What was once a two man race seems to be clear for Christian Bale to run down the finish line. He's won a mantle full of awards and critics went ga-ga over his performance and declaring that he stole the show. If there's anyone that can beat him it's Geoffrey Rush, but the man has an Oscar, and Bale doesn't, and the other three men haven't been talked about at all.

Who Will Win: Christian Bale
Who Could Win: Geoffrey Rush, but very slightly
Who Should Win: Bale, who surprised me with this performance and I'm glad for it.

I might do the smaller categories in a little bit, but what do you think of my predictions?