Tonight's the first night of the three big award shows of the year, and although it's a bit more loosy-goosy than the higher honor of Oscar, it's still a fun event. This year we have some strict front-runners (as always) and some open races in the more important, i.e. "serious" categories that will keep us in suspense until the name is read. Among past surprises were my favorite
Chloe Sevigny scoring a surprise win last year for her work on
Big Love -- and
I couldn't really care less about the TV categories. But it's shockers like that which jazz up everything, and make it all the more engaging; in contrast to the usual predicted winner/ "favorite" (especially when they are not deserving of the prize).
But here's my brief take on what will possibly go down tonight....
Best Picture: DramaBlack Swan/The Fighter/Inception/The King's Speech/The Social NetworkThough I have only seen two of the five, this seems like a pretty strong year for this category, and the three other look exciting and very promising. But for the winner, I say the choice is between
The Fighter and
The Social Network -- both have been loved by critics and the public and seem to be holding up very well with different demographics.
Black Swan, while ADORED critically, seems to have approached a mini backlash (as far as I can tell) and it's not a film that will appeal to everyone, but a win is absolutely
not impossible.
My Pick:
The FighterBest Actress: DramaHalle Berry in
Frankie and Alice/
Nicole Kidman in
Rabbit Hole/
Jennifer Lawrence in
Winter's Bone /Natalie Portman in Black Swan/Michelle Williams in Blue Valentine--Really, the only talk of anything in this category comes from
Natalie Portman who is most definitely a solid lock, and I can't think of any other recent time when I read or heard of anyone else even in the category. It's all sewn up, baby.
My Pick: Have only seen Portman, and I wasn't disappointed, though a second viewing is needed.
Best Actor: DramaJesse Eisenberg in
The Social Network/
Colin Firth in
The Kings Speech/
James Franco in
127 Hours/
Ryan Gosling in
Blue Valentine/
Mark Wahlberg in
The FighterThere was tons of buzz surrounding Eisenburg a little while ago, but now it seems that
Colin Firth is on everyone's tongue for his role in a film the awards shows gobble up; again i.e. very serious and straight-laced. Though I have heard of strong support of Franco who is runner up for sure. But where's the buzz about Wahlberg? He was skipped over at SAG, and everyone seems to be pushing this excellent (and very subtle) performance aside. An upset from him would be thrilling to see.
My Pick: Mark Wahlberg
Best Picture: Comedy or MusicalAlice in Wonderland/
Burlesque/
The Kids are All Right/Red/The Tourist--
First, I hated
Alice in Wonderland and it's accolades and box office receipts astound me months later, but I it's not going to win thankfully.
Burlesque is trashy camp with Cher, so it's not going to win. It seems that the only logical pick is
The Kids Are All Right, which is the only nominee that will find its way onto Oscar's ballot. I haven't seen it yet (DAMMIT!), but I hear its fantastic and it will totally walk away with the Globe.
My Pick: Most likely those
Kids will be alright, I'm sure.
Best Actress: Comedy or MusicalAnnette Bening in
The Kids Are All Right/
Anne Hathaway in
Love and Other Drugs/
Angelina Jolie in
The Tourist/
Julianne Moore in
The Kids Are All Right/Emma Stone in
Easy A--Another lock comes in the form of
Annette Bening's lauded work as well as her overdue ticket leading up to the Big One on Oscar night, does in fact place her in squarely in front without much competition. Have only just recently seen Stone in her star-making performance, and she is simply luminous, hilarious, and charismatic and deserves to be called a "star"; in another year she might've swiped it. Also, when's Julianne going to be the front-runner?!
My Pick: Haven't seen Bening, so Stone makes for a delightful comic treat in a role tailor made for her.
Best Actor: Comedy or MusicalJohnny Depp in
Alice in Wonderland/
Johnny Depp in
The Tourist/
Paul Giamatti in
Barney's Version/
Jake Gyllenhaal in
Love and Other Drugs/
Kevin Spacey in
Casino JackWell, well Mr. Depp gets two nominations in the same category, and where one of the biggest surprise remains relatively open. But so what? This lightweight category with its lightweight nominees won't really matter much come Oscar time, but I would say that the win will probably go to
Johnny Depp for
Alice. Great actor in general, but the movie's blandness just doesn't support him and well, and even his performance can't elevate the material. But he'll probably win because a) he's Johnny Depp b)The movie was a hit (WTF) and c) he's Johnny Depp.
My Pick: No one at this point
Best Supporting ActressAmy Adams in
The Fighter/
Helena Bonham Carter in
The King's Speech/
Mila Kunis in
Black Swan/Melissa Leo in
The Fighter/
Jacki Weaver in
Animal KingdomAlways the favorite for me, this year looks quite strong for the supporting ladies with a nice range of roles and overall acting technique. I can only speak for
The Fighter girls and of course Ms. Kunis in terms of actual performances which are all more than worthy, but for the win I see it as a tug between Leo and Adams. Leo has been recently deemed the "better" of the two with her work winning prizes and love all over the online film community, but Amy seems to be getting the same amount of positive critical attention and love...and she's been award-less after two previous losses. I somehow see
Leo winning it just slightly over Amy for some reason but the two co-stars are near equals for votes. Mila, I'm sad to say probably has a much lesser chance of winning but it's a great nomination to be proud of.
My Pick: Stuck between the trifecta of Adams, Leo, and Kunis -- all of whom deliver fresh, layered characterizations that represents some of the best acting of the year.
Best Supporting ActorChristian Bale in
The Fighter/
Michael Douglas in
Wall Street 2/
Andrew Garfield in
The Social Network/
Jeremy Renner in
The Town/
Geoffrey Rush in
The King's Speech
Douglas and Rush are out, leaving Bale, Garfield, and Renner against each other. I say that Garfield's nom will stay how it is, with
Bale triumphing over Renner for a performance critics loved that required much physical and emotional preparation. One of
The Fighter's sure wins for tonight, I believe.
My Pick: Bale, who grounds and expands a character with sympathy who is designed as a despicably trashy.
Best DirectorDarren Aronofsky for
Black Swan/
David Fincher for
The Social Network/
Tom Hooper for
The King's Speech/
Christopher Nolan for
Inception/
David O. Russell for
The Fighter
Considering S. Network's lead in Picture, I could see
Fincher taking it, and he probably will. Aronofsky could be awarded, but there's been talk of how much his direction helps or derails his film, so he's wobbly here.
My Pick: David O. Russell, for keeping the pace tight, fresh, and lively and for giving his action and actors space and dimension as well as texture that his audience gets absorbed in.
Thoughts??